Some in Washington see Moscow as a ājunior partnerā to be drawn away from Beijingās orbit and into its own
Itās just projection as usual from the west.
Western experts often speak about Russia becoming Chinaās ājunior partnerā and even a āvassal stateā. This narrative has dominated nearly all Western discussions about Russia-China relations for a long time.
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Another popular argument in favor of this theory is the difference in the size of the population and economy of the two countries (Chinaās population is ten times larger than that of Russia, and the same goes for its economy). While this is true in terms of statistics, reducing the complexities of interstate relations to mere statistics is either foolish or a deliberate oversimplification. Firstly, Russia maintains a decisive advantage in other areas, such as military-strategic potential
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US President Donald Trumpās recent attempts to normalize relations with Moscow are interpreted as an effort to replicate the āNixon effectā, but in reverse. In the early 1970s, then-President Richard Nixonās visit to China strengthened US-China relations amid their shared opposition to the Soviet Union. Now, it is believed that American diplomacy could lure Russia away from China, enabling the US to deliver a strategic blow to China.
However, this comparison does not stand up to scrutiny. Firstly, during the 1970s, China and the USSR were already in a state of confrontation; Nixonās actions didnāt cause this confrontation, but he capitalized on the favorable circumstances to open up the Chinese market for America and gain leverage in the struggle against the USSR. Today, neither Russia nor China wants to distance themselves from the US. If anyone is to blame for their closer alliance, itās America itself ā which has labeled them āexistential adversariesā and, out of arrogance and miscalculation, initiated a policy of ādual containmentā.
Within this framework of dual containment, the US sees China as a far more dangerous rival and Russia as merely an āappendageā that will align with either the US or China in the struggle for global dominance. However, this isnāt true; this perspective exists solely in the minds of the American elite.
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The Chinese perspective
China sees the escalating tensions in the world and does not want to get involved in a bipolar confrontation ā at least, that is Chinaās official stance. China considers Americaās increasing obsession with containing it the result of āa Cold War mentalityā and wonders why a profitable economic partnership, which has benefited both nations, should be jeopardized.
Unlike American politicians who believe that China might replace the US as the global leader, the Chinese have a more modest assessment of their own capabilities. They see the struggle for supremacy that unfolded between the Soviet Union and the United States as a cautionary tale. The USSR poured vast resources into this rivalry which, as many Chinese experts note, ultimately exhausted the nation, leading to a deep crisis and the collapse of the USSR.
China is determined not to repeat the USSRās mistakes. Socio-economic development remains its top priority; foreign policy is considered a tool for advancing this development, but not an end in itself. China believes that expanding economic ties and increasing the significance of former colonies and semi-colonies will inevitably diminish the influence of former colonial powers, particularly the US.
I would assume the Russian govt canāt possibly be foolish enough not to see that:
A) US foreign policy is no longer essentially stable between administrations as it was during the 20th and early 21st century. These friendly gestures from the US are almost certainly very temporaryāespecially due to Trumpās insane thought that Americans are willing to endure any struggle whatsoever, meaning his people arenāt going to be sticking around in govt for very long after his term.
B) Trumpās own inclination to make these geopolitical moves is largely because of his frustration with Zelenskyās refusal to dish on Bidenās kid.
In US govt presently, the kind people you mention who think about the impact of actions and plan for the future are brought in after arbitrary decisions are made on the basis that the thinkers and planners already agree with the arbitrary decision so will get the job done. Whatās happening now in US govt isnāt meaningfully strategic in its planning. Trump is both sundowning like crazy and uniquely empowered in his administration. Itās purely reactionaries being reactionary.
Points to decades of broken promises. Points to Minsk 1 and 2. Points to Russia taking so long after 2014 to act even while the US armed them and radicalized their population into Nazism.
Itās not just foolishness, itās material interests, they would rather believe whatās better for their material interests than make hard and confrontational choices against those who they want to join with (capitalist west).
I do agree that Russia is skeptical given the fact presidents change in the US so donāt think theyāll hop on board right away. But I feel there is a chance in 4 years we abandon any pretext of democratic rule because itās more useful to do that for among other things having a steady foreign policy plan. As right now the bourgeoisie have been tossing the reigns back and forth between different camps of thinking on the grand plan and I think there might be a faction (the one backing Trump now) thatās decided they donāt have time to fuck around with this show of electoral liberal democracy, with chances of the other camp getting power and wasting time, that having a consistent plan and foreign policy and implementing it without disruption is more important than the electoral theater at home.
Trump wonāt declare himself an emperor Iām pretty sure so theyāll still have this thin veneer that oh the supreme court ruled he can be president again so itās legal and fine and rule of law still applies even if he can operate with incredible latitude beyond that any president has ever exercised and IF theyāre doing this theyāll have the fallback of blaming it all on Trump and a few sycophants, that if need be to go back to pretending to be a ādemocracyā they can just wait for Trump to die or abdicate and set things back the way they were with a triumphant return of a significantly reigned in and more openly reactionary Democratic party to power being used to reassure everyone that era is in the past. So itās not even something where once they make that choice they canāt go back. Trump as aberration was one of the most popular narratives last time around so itāll sell to those who want to believe and the rest will mostly be trapped in cynicism and beliefs in the end of history or gommunism failed system propaganda so it hardly matters.
What youāre saying could certainly come to pass, but I donāt think the conservatives are capable of maintaining a stable hold without Trump, not to mention, detente with Russia is possibly the only decision heās made thatās received substantial pushback from his own party. Americans supporting reactionary ideology certainly isnāt an aberration but Trump himself cannot help but do everything in his power to humiliate any successor he may have, ensuring his political mission doesnāt meaningfully outlive him. Trump is 78 and doesnāt take his health seriouslyāheās not long for this world. Hell, Iām not even sure what it would mean to continue Trumpās political mission without him. His only concrete policy positions are racism and anti-lgbt+ discrimination, which was very much already in vogue among conservatives prior to his ascent. Otherwise, everything else is seemingly completely malleable. Even if Trump does manage to get his people behind someone to take over for him, I canāt imagine his supporters will bat an eye at a complete about face on Russia. Friendlier relations with Russia doesnāt excite the base like ending DEI programs, so can be discarded without any major political repercussions.
I think youāre extremely delusional if you think there is more than a 0.01 percent chance of Russia accepting the U.S.'s offer to turn on China. And thatās me being polite. I canāt fault you for thinking that though.
The veneer of democracy in this country is over, for most rational people. Get out while you can.
It profits to be skeptical of fair-weather friends. Russia is whether you like it or not, whether I like it or not, whether China likes it or not a capitalist nation thatās been cultivating a reactionary āreturn to traditionā ideology and culture. In a Marxist sense the only reason for Russia to not betray China is if they believe there are more profits to be made not doing that, if they truly believe the westās grip on unipolar power being destroyed is their only hope for survival and increasing profits then theyāll stick with China. In recent years because of the westās attacks on Russia and the strength of the west theyāve been unable to engage in imperialism or really do anything but trade friendship and support for arms sales and returned friendship with the outcasts club of countries the US hates which one might say theyāre cynically using to counter-balance US influence and power more than helping ideological friends.
We just donāt know if the west gave Russia a deal that they wouldnāt take it if the US actually gave them real concessions and not just empty promises, if the US said behind closed doors basically theyāre going to drop Europe because itās too āradicalā and embrace Russia and theyāll be partners, equal partners in controlling the world and Russia will have its sphere (including the US pushing Europe to allow the election of more Russia sympathetic rabidly reactionary parties) which the US wonāt encroach on and the US will have a larger sphere but promises to share some of the exploitation profits from Africa, etc with Russian companies and bourgeoisie.
We just donāt know as well how much the Russian bourgeoisie yearn to be able to go to the west and enjoy their wealth, to do luxury shopping, to attend exclusive events, to own mansions in exclusive locales and park yachts there. Theyāve lost all of this. A promise for more wealth and regained access could be enough to sway them.
Itās best to at least consider possibilities like this and keep them in mind when evaluating developments rather than be taken by surprise because we live in denial and have blinders on where we believe the only course forward is Russia sticking with China and the US collapsing. I certainly hope thatās what we see. Iād rather it be so.
I didnāt mean to sound like an asshole, and Iām sorry if I did.
You have very good and reasonable points.
I also agree that while Russia is and very likely will remain a strong friend of China, Russia is probably closer to being a fair-weather friend more than not.
Yet, I think that people are way too skeptical of Russia.
Iām not saying to not be skeptical or to not prepare or plan for if Russia decides to turn against China, or to not prepare for the worst.
But I think that if Russia were to become imperialist, or was secretly hiding itās goals for decades straight, which is unlikely, it would have done so by now.
Russia for decades has been building mutually beneficial relationships with the rest of the Global South, no doubt following Chinaās example as well.
And there is no doubt that the Russian government is a far-right shithole cluster, just way more reasonable than the first world imperialist colonialist fascist west.
Elements of socialism are slowly returning to Russia and Iāve read that people are beginning to agitate for the eventual return of socialism and hopefully the overthrow of the oligarchy.
Itās in the Russian oligarchās best interests to follow Putinās and Chinaās leads. It would be incredibly stupid for the oligarchs to betray Russia now, at least without years and years of promises and schmoozing that havenāt started yet, and they would face mass resistance from the Russian populace.
Putin is just one man, and he is a dictator, but he and his administration and supporters somewhat keep the oligarchs in line.
Youāre fine comrade. You came off strongly but youāre passionate about it, you went to the top but not much over and I understand.
Perhaps. Iām skeptical in general so donāt take it as too much of a slight against Russia in my case. I was rooting for them month 1 of their fight back against the west but itās given me much to chew on. I even worry about the planners in China and the penetration of liberalism there. I hope itās being combated, I think there are those trying but only time will tell. As to Russia, theyāre non-AES, actively pushing reactionary ideology to recuperate and erase their socialist past specifically against womenās rights and sexual minorities and Putin is a moderating influence from what I can see. I read RT frequently. I know they do tend to at times highlight fringe reactionary figures for stories but they also have more prominent people who write opinion pieces (that RT just translates for English speakers like myself) and their thinking is often not great. Iām not going to pretend to be the Russia-understander but from where I sit in the west things are not going in the right direction in Russia in terms of superstructure but theyāre not going as badly as they could be either.
I hope Putin lives another 10 years just for stabilityās sake.
As to the return of socialism. It would be nice, it would be great but it seems a tall order in the near future. Hope springs eternal.
I think that while improvement is always possible, I think that the Communist Party of China is nearly perfect. They have a very strong work ethic and goals and are willing to take and adjust ideas from everyone, while still having resolute ideals, and the party self-corrects to root out neoliberalism. I think that liberalism is kept at a distant reach in China, from my years of study. Not discarded or dismissed, but kept at a distance.
It pisses me off that Russia elevates often reich-wing figures and concepts as well.
I think that in terms of economic superstructure, Russia is definitely moving in the right direction. Itās socially/politically speaking that concerns me.
I know what itās like to be a skeptical person, for what itās worth.
I hate Putin and I think he is definitely a dictator, but he is also Russiaās best option for now.