Max

What you’re saying could certainly come to pass, but I don’t think the conservatives are capable of maintaining a stable hold without Trump, not to mention, detente with Russia is possibly the only decision he’s made that’s received substantial pushback from his own party. Americans supporting reactionary ideology certainly isn’t an aberration but Trump himself cannot help but do everything in his power to humiliate any successor he may have, ensuring his political mission doesn’t meaningfully outlive him. Trump is 78 and doesn’t take his health seriously—he’s not long for this world. Hell, I’m not even sure what it would mean to continue Trump’s political mission without him. His only concrete policy positions are racism and anti-lgbt+ discrimination, which was very much already in vogue among conservatives prior to his ascent. Otherwise, everything else is seemingly completely malleable. Even if Trump does manage to get his people behind someone to take over for him, I can’t imagine his supporters will bat an eye at a complete about face on Russia. Friendlier relations with Russia doesn’t excite the base like ending DEI programs, so can be discarded without any major political repercussions.

I would assume the Russian govt can’t possibly be foolish enough not to see that:

A) US foreign policy is no longer essentially stable between administrations as it was during the 20th and early 21st century. These friendly gestures from the US are almost certainly very temporary—especially due to Trump’s insane thought that Americans are willing to endure any struggle whatsoever, meaning his people aren’t going to be sticking around in govt for very long after his term.

B) Trump’s own inclination to make these geopolitical moves is largely because of his frustration with Zelensky’s refusal to dish on Biden’s kid.

In US govt presently, the kind people you mention who think about the impact of actions and plan for the future are brought in after arbitrary decisions are made on the basis that the thinkers and planners already agree with the arbitrary decision so will get the job done. What’s happening now in US govt isn’t meaningfully strategic in its planning. Trump is both sundowning like crazy and uniquely empowered in his administration. It’s purely reactionaries being reactionary.

I’ve never been especially swayed by concerns of capital flight, though clearly the Russian economy is especially well insulated. I was just being flippantly facetious about Putin et al, who at one point really went way beyond any reasonable sense to try and have nice relations with the west. But, the broad coalition needed to keep the Communists out of power is far too fragile for Putin to do anything too purely self-interested—despite western insistence on his infinite dictatorial powers.

My concern is if western Europe can be convinced to detente with Russia (unlikely but who tf knows). In that case, I just hope the rich Russian man’s universal urge to retire to southern France/northern Italy is offset by the fear that the Russian populace will tie them up by their toes like a piñata for selling out the country to western business interests twice in one life time.

I’m not especially familiar with all this so maybe I’m off base, but considering Milei moved to stop joining BRICS, I think this poster is wildly overselling whatever point he may have. Saying Milei ‘prefers [trade with] china’ over the US is pretty close to demonstrably false in light of that.

An interesting idea for sure and certainly has meaningful implications—maybe, it’s not like I’m an expert—before it reaches the ‘sweet checkmate’ territory I think the author has in mind, but if any significant indication exists that China is directly undermining the US dollar in such an effective and apparent way, I fear it’s WW3 before the strategy comes to fruition.