Some in Washington see Moscow as a ājunior partnerā to be drawn away from Beijingās orbit and into its own
Itās just projection as usual from the west.
Western experts often speak about Russia becoming Chinaās ājunior partnerā and even a āvassal stateā. This narrative has dominated nearly all Western discussions about Russia-China relations for a long time.
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Another popular argument in favor of this theory is the difference in the size of the population and economy of the two countries (Chinaās population is ten times larger than that of Russia, and the same goes for its economy). While this is true in terms of statistics, reducing the complexities of interstate relations to mere statistics is either foolish or a deliberate oversimplification. Firstly, Russia maintains a decisive advantage in other areas, such as military-strategic potential
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US President Donald Trumpās recent attempts to normalize relations with Moscow are interpreted as an effort to replicate the āNixon effectā, but in reverse. In the early 1970s, then-President Richard Nixonās visit to China strengthened US-China relations amid their shared opposition to the Soviet Union. Now, it is believed that American diplomacy could lure Russia away from China, enabling the US to deliver a strategic blow to China.
However, this comparison does not stand up to scrutiny. Firstly, during the 1970s, China and the USSR were already in a state of confrontation; Nixonās actions didnāt cause this confrontation, but he capitalized on the favorable circumstances to open up the Chinese market for America and gain leverage in the struggle against the USSR. Today, neither Russia nor China wants to distance themselves from the US. If anyone is to blame for their closer alliance, itās America itself ā which has labeled them āexistential adversariesā and, out of arrogance and miscalculation, initiated a policy of ādual containmentā.
Within this framework of dual containment, the US sees China as a far more dangerous rival and Russia as merely an āappendageā that will align with either the US or China in the struggle for global dominance. However, this isnāt true; this perspective exists solely in the minds of the American elite.
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The Chinese perspective
China sees the escalating tensions in the world and does not want to get involved in a bipolar confrontation ā at least, that is Chinaās official stance. China considers Americaās increasing obsession with containing it the result of āa Cold War mentalityā and wonders why a profitable economic partnership, which has benefited both nations, should be jeopardized.
Unlike American politicians who believe that China might replace the US as the global leader, the Chinese have a more modest assessment of their own capabilities. They see the struggle for supremacy that unfolded between the Soviet Union and the United States as a cautionary tale. The USSR poured vast resources into this rivalry which, as many Chinese experts note, ultimately exhausted the nation, leading to a deep crisis and the collapse of the USSR.
China is determined not to repeat the USSRās mistakes. Socio-economic development remains its top priority; foreign policy is considered a tool for advancing this development, but not an end in itself. China believes that expanding economic ties and increasing the significance of former colonies and semi-colonies will inevitably diminish the influence of former colonial powers, particularly the US.
I didnāt mean to sound like an asshole, and Iām sorry if I did.
You have very good and reasonable points.
I also agree that while Russia is and very likely will remain a strong friend of China, Russia is probably closer to being a fair-weather friend more than not.
Yet, I think that people are way too skeptical of Russia.
Iām not saying to not be skeptical or to not prepare or plan for if Russia decides to turn against China, or to not prepare for the worst.
But I think that if Russia were to become imperialist, or was secretly hiding itās goals for decades straight, which is unlikely, it would have done so by now.
Russia for decades has been building mutually beneficial relationships with the rest of the Global South, no doubt following Chinaās example as well.
And there is no doubt that the Russian government is a far-right shithole cluster, just way more reasonable than the first world imperialist colonialist fascist west.
Elements of socialism are slowly returning to Russia and Iāve read that people are beginning to agitate for the eventual return of socialism and hopefully the overthrow of the oligarchy.
Itās in the Russian oligarchās best interests to follow Putinās and Chinaās leads. It would be incredibly stupid for the oligarchs to betray Russia now, at least without years and years of promises and schmoozing that havenāt started yet, and they would face mass resistance from the Russian populace.
Putin is just one man, and he is a dictator, but he and his administration and supporters somewhat keep the oligarchs in line.
Youāre fine comrade. You came off strongly but youāre passionate about it, you went to the top but not much over and I understand.
Perhaps. Iām skeptical in general so donāt take it as too much of a slight against Russia in my case. I was rooting for them month 1 of their fight back against the west but itās given me much to chew on. I even worry about the planners in China and the penetration of liberalism there. I hope itās being combated, I think there are those trying but only time will tell. As to Russia, theyāre non-AES, actively pushing reactionary ideology to recuperate and erase their socialist past specifically against womenās rights and sexual minorities and Putin is a moderating influence from what I can see. I read RT frequently. I know they do tend to at times highlight fringe reactionary figures for stories but they also have more prominent people who write opinion pieces (that RT just translates for English speakers like myself) and their thinking is often not great. Iām not going to pretend to be the Russia-understander but from where I sit in the west things are not going in the right direction in Russia in terms of superstructure but theyāre not going as badly as they could be either.
I hope Putin lives another 10 years just for stabilityās sake.
As to the return of socialism. It would be nice, it would be great but it seems a tall order in the near future. Hope springs eternal.
I think that while improvement is always possible, I think that the Communist Party of China is nearly perfect. They have a very strong work ethic and goals and are willing to take and adjust ideas from everyone, while still having resolute ideals, and the party self-corrects to root out neoliberalism. I think that liberalism is kept at a distant reach in China, from my years of study. Not discarded or dismissed, but kept at a distance.
It pisses me off that Russia elevates often reich-wing figures and concepts as well.
I think that in terms of economic superstructure, Russia is definitely moving in the right direction. Itās socially/politically speaking that concerns me.
I know what itās like to be a skeptical person, for what itās worth.
I hate Putin and I think he is definitely a dictator, but he is also Russiaās best option for now.