If you happen to be a careful reader of daily newspapers, you may have read that tentative preliminary ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas have begun again in Doha, the capital of Qatar.
The talks, barely underway, may or may not work out, but I have been told by a reliable Israeli that these talks contain a new element: the long-term involvement of Saudi Arabia, and its money, in a rebuilding plan for Gaza; and a tired old element, antithetical to Israel’s political leadership, calling for the Palestinians in the West Bank to have a separate political leadership. That is, a two-state solution, long rejected by Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing colleagues.
In return for its support and money, the Israeli told me, the Saudi leadership would be offered an expanded defense treaty by the United States that would include Saudi Arabia in its nuclear umbrella—its zone of protection—in case Iran, Israel’s last standing enemy, were to acquire a nuclear bomb. The fear that Iran, which is known to be capable of enriching uranium to weapons-grade level, might decide to do so remains vivid in Israel and Washington. There is no evidence, however, that Iran, whose close allies have recently been bombed into submission by Israel, has the desire and capability now or in the near future to build the bomb, but that fact has been consistently ignored by the United States, its allies, and the major US media.
There is an added inducement in the Saudi package, the Israeli told me: the Saudis would look the other way as the Israelis conduct bombing raids, including bombing of military targets inside fractured Syria, and would give Israel access to an airfield within Saudi borders. This would bring Israeli bombs, most supplied by the United States, within minutes, and not hours, of key Iranian targets.
None of this may take place, and probably will not, but there is much for Israel and its prime minister to go after in such talks. Netanyahu, now defending himself three times a week before an Israeli court on long-standing fraud and bribery charges—I’ve been told many of his answers are “I do not recall” or “My wife was taking care of those things”—has been told by Hamas that a few dozen surviving hostages from October 7—more than one hundred are still unaccounted for—would be released in return for a formal ceasefire in Gaza and the release of many Palestinian prisoners jailed by Israel. The bodies of others who did not survive the ordeal would also be returned. (I was told that Israeli intelligence believes as many as forty-three hostages are still alive, but the numbers cannot be verified). The New York Times reported that CIA director Bill Burns returned to Qatar on Wednesday to take part in the resumed ceasefire negotiations. The only successful talks took place in November of 2023, when amid a weeklong ceasefire, 105 hostages were returned, and 240 Palestinian prisoners were released from jails in Israel.
All talks since then have gone nowhere. Mohammed Sinwar, the brother of longtime Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who was slain last October, is not involved in the current talks and is believed, the Israeli said, to still be in the tunnels under Gaza.
The vital new element in the current talks is the pending involvement of Saudi Arabia, the Israeli told me. “Israel and the Saudis are inching along in resettlement talks in Gaza, and there is cautious optimism that there will be a deal that would involve the Saudis making a long-term investment in the rebuilding of Gaza”—once the war with Hamas was settled. One immediate goal, the Israeli said, “was to get on the path for normalization” that would involve Israel’s agreement that “there would be some Palestinian Authority ‘representation’” in the rebuilt Gaza.
The Israeli added that there would be “no hint of a reorganized Palestinian Authority,” the failed vestige of the Oslo Accords, the 1993 agreement calling for a two-state solution. Some names are already being discussed as possible leadership of the new entity in Gaza, if approved by the Saudis and other involved factions.
I should make clear that in my talks with the Israeli there are no immediate plans to improve the day-to-day ability to sustain life in Gaza. Israeli Air Force attacks still occur amid a lack of housing, food, and proper sanitation for the 2.25 million Gazan survivors of the 14-month Israeli response (which has killed at least 45,000 Gazans, including 31,500 women and children) to the Hamas attacks that killed 815 Israelis citizens and nearly four hundreds Israeli soldiers and security officials among 1,200 deaths.
One complicating issue involves the future of north Gaza, the area closest to Israel’s main population centers and within range of many missiles, whose hundreds of thousands of residents have been driven to the south by the IDF in order to turn the north into a fire-free zone. As of today, the Israeli told me, “Israel is destroying every single structure in the land” while there is a heated political fight inside Israel with the religious right insisting that the north be open to Israeli settlers. “Meanwhile,” the Israeli added, “The Israeli leadership is under pressure from the Saudis not to turn over the north to the whackos.” The future of the north remains unsettled, the Israeli said, and the Saudis, who at this point remain committed to the rebuilding of north Gaza, have reminded all parties that it will take five to seven years to complete the reconstruction of the zone and therefore have asked, “What’s the rush?” to decide its fate.
I was told that a major driving force behind the renewed talks has been consistent public and private pressure from President-elect Donald Trump to the Israeli leadership to agree to a ceasefire and resolve the hostage issue. Trump’s many public statements to that effect include a direct warning on social media earlier this month that there will be “ALL HELL TO PAY” – the capitalized words were his—unless the hostages are released before his inauguration next month. “Those responsible will be hit harder than anybody has been hit,” he wrote.
The Israeli told me that there are some in the Israeli leadership whose response has been to say, in essence, that “if Trump pushes for the deal and the Saudis are willing to put up the money, who are we to say no?”
There has been no official statement from Israel or Washington about the specifics of the ceasefire now under discussion in Doha, but al Mayadeen, the satellite news channel known for its contacts in the Arab world, reported this week what it says was the Hamas offer now on the table in Doha. The channel further said “significant process” has been made in the talks.
The potential ceasefire would be in two phases, the channel said. Step one would be a 42-day truce and the release of all Israeli women, including female members of the IDF, children, and the elderly in exchange for the release for a “substantial” number of Palestine prisoners in Israeli prisons, including some serving life sentences.
Hamas’s demands require what al Mayadeen said was the “flow of humanitarian aid, machinery, and equipment for relief efforts” in stricken Gaza, as well as the reconstruction of hospitals and other public facilities. The second part of the Hamas offer calls for a full withdrawal of the Israeli military from Gaza, followed by the exchange of the male Israeli soldiers being held as hostages for the release of more “Palestinian prisoners”—that is, members of Hamas in captivity since October 7.
If the al Mayadeen report is correct, it seems clear that the remaining Hamas leadership is under the false impression that it has won its underground tunnel war with Israel. On the other hand, Netanyahu has been under extreme political pressure to get the remaining hostages out from Hamas’s hands, I was told by the Israeli, he “will insist on all of the hostages being released in one fell swoop.”
The Israeli response has yet to come, but as the Israeli told me, Trump, in his messages to the Saudis—how such communication takes place is not known—has been telling the leadership there that it “will not get a nuclear umbrella” from Washington until it normalizes relations with Israel. One key player in the current and obviously difficult talks is expected to be Michael Waltz, the conservative former Green Beret congressman from Florida who will be the Trump’s national security adviser. Vice President-elect JD Vance, a supporter of Israel who is expected to have a significant role in foreign policy, will also be involved.
Another complication, I was told by the Israeli, stems from the long-standing hostility between the Saudi Kingdom and supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood, such as Qatar. “Saudi Arabia wants to keep Qatar out of the Palestine issues in Gaza,” he said.
The tragedy is that even if a political agreement can be reached with Hamas and its supporters for the release of all hostages and an end to the war, it will come too late for the suffering men, women and children of Gaza and for the many hostages who died in horrid circumstances in Hamas captivity. That it took the election of Donald Trump to stimulate even a glimmer of hope for peace in Gaza will mark the abject failure of the dismal foreign police of the Biden administration.
This is a time of change that could mark the end of Hamas as an instrument of war. Its new leadership, if in any way sensible, should come to terms with the fact that Israel’s recent air attacks in Lebanon, Syria, and Iran have reset the Middle East and left Hamas with little chance of support from its one-time benefactors, even in Qatar. There are political choices to be made in the coming meetings with Israel over hostages—and survival.
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If you happen to be a careful reader of daily newspapers, you may have read that tentative preliminary ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas have begun again in Doha, the capital of Qatar.
The talks, barely underway, may or may not work out, but I have been told by a reliable Israeli that these talks contain a new element: the long-term involvement of Saudi Arabia, and its money, in a rebuilding plan for Gaza; and a tired old element, antithetical to Israel’s political leadership, calling for the Palestinians in the West Bank to have a separate political leadership. That is, a two-state solution, long rejected by Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing colleagues.
In return for its support and money, the Israeli told me, the Saudi leadership would be offered an expanded defense treaty by the United States that would include Saudi Arabia in its nuclear umbrella—its zone of protection—in case Iran, Israel’s last standing enemy, were to acquire a nuclear bomb. The fear that Iran, which is known to be capable of enriching uranium to weapons-grade level, might decide to do so remains vivid in Israel and Washington. There is no evidence, however, that Iran, whose close allies have recently been bombed into submission by Israel, has the desire and capability now or in the near future to build the bomb, but that fact has been consistently ignored by the United States, its allies, and the major US media.
There is an added inducement in the Saudi package, the Israeli told me: the Saudis would look the other way as the Israelis conduct bombing raids, including bombing of military targets inside fractured Syria, and would give Israel access to an airfield within Saudi borders. This would bring Israeli bombs, most supplied by the United States, within minutes, and not hours, of key Iranian targets.
None of this may take place, and probably will not, but there is much for Israel and its prime minister to go after in such talks. Netanyahu, now defending himself three times a week before an Israeli court on long-standing fraud and bribery charges—I’ve been told many of his answers are “I do not recall” or “My wife was taking care of those things”—has been told by Hamas that a few dozen surviving hostages from October 7—more than one hundred are still unaccounted for—would be released in return for a formal ceasefire in Gaza and the release of many Palestinian prisoners jailed by Israel. The bodies of others who did not survive the ordeal would also be returned. (I was told that Israeli intelligence believes as many as forty-three hostages are still alive, but the numbers cannot be verified). The New York Times reported that CIA director Bill Burns returned to Qatar on Wednesday to take part in the resumed ceasefire negotiations. The only successful talks took place in November of 2023, when amid a weeklong ceasefire, 105 hostages were returned, and 240 Palestinian prisoners were released from jails in Israel.
All talks since then have gone nowhere. Mohammed Sinwar, the brother of longtime Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who was slain last October, is not involved in the current talks and is believed, the Israeli said, to still be in the tunnels under Gaza.
The vital new element in the current talks is the pending involvement of Saudi Arabia, the Israeli told me. “Israel and the Saudis are inching along in resettlement talks in Gaza, and there is cautious optimism that there will be a deal that would involve the Saudis making a long-term investment in the rebuilding of Gaza”—once the war with Hamas was settled. One immediate goal, the Israeli said, “was to get on the path for normalization” that would involve Israel’s agreement that “there would be some Palestinian Authority ‘representation’” in the rebuilt Gaza.
The Israeli added that there would be “no hint of a reorganized Palestinian Authority,” the failed vestige of the Oslo Accords, the 1993 agreement calling for a two-state solution. Some names are already being discussed as possible leadership of the new entity in Gaza, if approved by the Saudis and other involved factions.
I should make clear that in my talks with the Israeli there are no immediate plans to improve the day-to-day ability to sustain life in Gaza. Israeli Air Force attacks still occur amid a lack of housing, food, and proper sanitation for the 2.25 million Gazan survivors of the 14-month Israeli response (which has killed at least 45,000 Gazans, including 31,500 women and children) to the Hamas attacks that killed 815 Israelis citizens and nearly four hundreds Israeli soldiers and security officials among 1,200 deaths.
One complicating issue involves the future of north Gaza, the area closest to Israel’s main population centers and within range of many missiles, whose hundreds of thousands of residents have been driven to the south by the IDF in order to turn the north into a fire-free zone. As of today, the Israeli told me, “Israel is destroying every single structure in the land” while there is a heated political fight inside Israel with the religious right insisting that the north be open to Israeli settlers. “Meanwhile,” the Israeli added, “The Israeli leadership is under pressure from the Saudis not to turn over the north to the whackos.” The future of the north remains unsettled, the Israeli said, and the Saudis, who at this point remain committed to the rebuilding of north Gaza, have reminded all parties that it will take five to seven years to complete the reconstruction of the zone and therefore have asked, “What’s the rush?” to decide its fate.
I was told that a major driving force behind the renewed talks has been consistent public and private pressure from President-elect Donald Trump to the Israeli leadership to agree to a ceasefire and resolve the hostage issue. Trump’s many public statements to that effect include a direct warning on social media earlier this month that there will be “ALL HELL TO PAY” – the capitalized words were his—unless the hostages are released before his inauguration next month. “Those responsible will be hit harder than anybody has been hit,” he wrote.
The Israeli told me that there are some in the Israeli leadership whose response has been to say, in essence, that “if Trump pushes for the deal and the Saudis are willing to put up the money, who are we to say no?”
There has been no official statement from Israel or Washington about the specifics of the ceasefire now under discussion in Doha, but al Mayadeen, the satellite news channel known for its contacts in the Arab world, reported this week what it says was the Hamas offer now on the table in Doha. The channel further said “significant process” has been made in the talks.
The potential ceasefire would be in two phases, the channel said. Step one would be a 42-day truce and the release of all Israeli women, including female members of the IDF, children, and the elderly in exchange for the release for a “substantial” number of Palestine prisoners in Israeli prisons, including some serving life sentences.
Hamas’s demands require what al Mayadeen said was the “flow of humanitarian aid, machinery, and equipment for relief efforts” in stricken Gaza, as well as the reconstruction of hospitals and other public facilities. The second part of the Hamas offer calls for a full withdrawal of the Israeli military from Gaza, followed by the exchange of the male Israeli soldiers being held as hostages for the release of more “Palestinian prisoners”—that is, members of Hamas in captivity since October 7.
If the al Mayadeen report is correct, it seems clear that the remaining Hamas leadership is under the false impression that it has won its underground tunnel war with Israel. On the other hand, Netanyahu has been under extreme political pressure to get the remaining hostages out from Hamas’s hands, I was told by the Israeli, he “will insist on all of the hostages being released in one fell swoop.”
The Israeli response has yet to come, but as the Israeli told me, Trump, in his messages to the Saudis—how such communication takes place is not known—has been telling the leadership there that it “will not get a nuclear umbrella” from Washington until it normalizes relations with Israel. One key player in the current and obviously difficult talks is expected to be Michael Waltz, the conservative former Green Beret congressman from Florida who will be the Trump’s national security adviser. Vice President-elect JD Vance, a supporter of Israel who is expected to have a significant role in foreign policy, will also be involved.
Another complication, I was told by the Israeli, stems from the long-standing hostility between the Saudi Kingdom and supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood, such as Qatar. “Saudi Arabia wants to keep Qatar out of the Palestine issues in Gaza,” he said.
The tragedy is that even if a political agreement can be reached with Hamas and its supporters for the release of all hostages and an end to the war, it will come too late for the suffering men, women and children of Gaza and for the many hostages who died in horrid circumstances in Hamas captivity. That it took the election of Donald Trump to stimulate even a glimmer of hope for peace in Gaza will mark the abject failure of the dismal foreign police of the Biden administration.
This is a time of change that could mark the end of Hamas as an instrument of war. Its new leadership, if in any way sensible, should come to terms with the fact that Israel’s recent air attacks in Lebanon, Syria, and Iran have reset the Middle East and left Hamas with little chance of support from its one-time benefactors, even in Qatar. There are political choices to be made in the coming meetings with Israel over hostages—and survival.
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