cross-posted from: https://scribe.disroot.org/post/11883569
[Op-ed by Derrick Wyatt, KC, is Emeritus Professor of Law at the University of Oxford and a former practising lawyer who advised businesses and governments.]
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Vladimir Kara-Murza, Russian-British critic of Putin now living in the UK, said in September that as long as Putin is in power the Ukraine war is not going to stop. He added that political change in Russia is inevitable, that it may not be so far away, and that when it comes, it will be swift, sudden and unexpected. Kara-Murza is not alone in seeing the writing on the wall for Putin’s presidency, and the prospect of regime change in Moscow could inspire Ukraine’s European allies with an alternative strategy to Trump’s Putin-leaning peace process.
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The time seems right for Ukraine’s allies to start talking over Putin’s head to his potential successors – to let them know that a peace that respected Ukraine’s sovereignty would bring Russia a major political and economic reset with Europe as well as an end to a war that is doing serious damage to Russia.
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European conditions for a fresh start with Russia would include a seat for Ukraine’s allies in peace negotiations if Ukraine asked for it, a just outcome on Ukraine’s sovereignty, and agreed Russian funding . . . for Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction
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Ukraine’s European allies have so far been confined to the fringes of Trump’s Putin-friendly peace process. Now Europe has the chance to launch an alternative peace strategy, in which it pitches an off-ramp from the Ukraine war, not to Putin, for whom anything less than a military victory seems off the table, but to his potential successor or successors, for whom a just peace for Ukraine might be an acceptable price to pay for ending the war and securing a reset in Russia’s links with Europe. It would be in the UK’s interest to launch or to join such an initiative. Canada – close to Ukraine and to Europe’s NATO Allies, and now seeking a ‘unique alliance’ with the EU, might also join such an alternative strategy.
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That would be a sort of best-case scenario. It could only happen if the EU breaks its dependence on the US. A EU-Russia economic bloc would be as big of a threat to the US now as it was in the 90s. Would be nice for things to go that way.
This needs to happen regardless. Not only has the U.S. proved to be an absolutely unreliable partner: under MAGA, it’s an enemy to Europe. The U.S. fascists and oligarchs want to see Europe fail for the same reason Putinism does: if your next-door neighbour enjoys liberties and a reasonably good life in a stable democracy, at some point your own impoverished and downtrodden populace will ask why they cannot have that too. The U.S. under Trumpism wishes to destroy Europe just like Putinism. Thus, if Europe wishes to survive in its current form, all dependence on the U.S. needs to be eradicated.
I think not so much destroy as keep subordinate and paying for US product, making profits for the US oligarch class. Europeans living well means there’s more surplus to be had. The US doesn’t want anyone destroyed (as a first option) - as that’s less profitable than subordination. Subordination can look pretty destructive for the averge citizen living in such countries though.
Potato, potato. MAGA and MAGA-aligned oligarchs are bankrolling and pushing the European far right, which is deeply illiberal and keen to return Europe to a balkanised landscape of isolated nationstates. That amounts to the destruction of the EU as a whole since which was designed around the very ideas of freedom and supranational unification.