Due to high gerrymandering and messed up voting system it’s expected that a result like this would still give Orbán a small majority in the parliament.
But Orbán won all elections since 2006 (in 2006 he lost parliamentary elections in March but won local elections in September, than won everything in 2010, than he changed the voting rules). Current system overwhelmingly punishes coalitions and small parties, and favors big parties.
Medián, the pollster behind this poll is usually one of the most accurate. Wiki page about recent polls, and the rise of Tisza Party: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Hungarian_parliamentary_election
Just remmeber that orban completely changed the electoral system and it now gives him an inbuilt advantage, even moreso than the Republicans have under the US system.
Yep, and we don’t know what else will come. There are speculations that he will decrease the threshold, so smaller and fake parties can get seats, they will create new electoral districts for Hungarians living in Romania, Serbia and Slovakia, but not for those who live in Western Europe, etc…
Before every election he modified some rules some month prior the election, so it would give him the best possible result, you can expect this will happen again in 2026. Usually these changes are so close to the election, that opposition parties can hardly react, and they have to rethink their full strategy.