There is non-zero probability Trump spends the remaining portion of his campaign in Rikers. I’ve been following the Trump Trial pretty closely. Most informed punditry is putting it at 60-80% conviction to around 20% chance of hung jury. I’m not sure this does anything with regards to Trumps die-hards, but I could see Romney taking it as an opportunity.
That being said, the Biden campaign isn’t exactly trotting him out on the regular. They’ve been incredibly couched with how and when they put the Democratic nominee for President out there. Kamala has had way more press time than he has in the past 3 months. I mean thats what surrogates are for, but like, the silence is deafening. Remember how much Obamas first term aged him? Its not like Biden is immune to the impacts of stress, age, and a difficult job.
Trump is obviously not the person to look for for this kind of take, but I still don’t think either of these candidates are a sure thing. They are both old as fuck. Social security puts out an actuarial table on probability of dying in a given year for this age cohort.
Its about 8% for males. Imagine you have two 12 sided dice. If you roll both and neither comes up as a one, both of these guys make it to November. That’s just base line odds for octogenarians, who should be gardening and watching the view all day. Not octogenarians with high stress jobs or who are neck deep in criminal proceedings.
If you’ve followed the trial that closely, then you know that first-time offenders are not always given jail time for this. And in spite of the large number of individual counts, the prosecution is basing their case on only a few actions. The judge may order some charges served concurrently if they are tied to the same action. If he is found guilty on all counts, then if he goes to jail at all it will likely only be for a short term.
And while politics is not supposed to factor into sentencing at all, from a political point of view a short sentence is the worst possible outcome for people who don’t want to see the US turn into a fascist state. Because it means that Trump can play the Martyr card, and convince his fans that Biden is out to get him, in spite of the facts.
I have a bad feeling about this.
When was the last time Trump ran, 1975? Biden might have the occasional issue with balance but I bet he still jogs at a healthy clip.
Has he ever run?
I am sure his “bone spurs” make it too hard.
I bet if he saw a girl he fancied heading into change at a pageant he would flat out sprint.
The fat jiggles are getting more pronounced doesn’t mean he is actually moving any faster.
I look forward to the day when we don’t have two geriatrics fighting over who is the most senile.
I agree. The best way to stop this from happening again is to vote against anyone who has had more than two terms in any office. Vote them out early and often.
Yet I keep hearing you guys talking about Bernie.
The Deep State definitely does not want Bernie. The President and the members of Congress don’t need to stay in power year after year. The Government is run by lifetime employees at the individual agencies. Please vote these people out on a regular basis. The only reason that we have Joe Biden is because he wasn’t voted out of office 30 years ago.
Bernie is a Zionist. What are you talking about? Yes, he eventually called for a ceasefire (as late as Dec. 10 he refused to call for a permanent ceasefire), but he’s never said anything remotely anti-Zionist. He’s repeatedly declared Israel’s right to defend it’s settler-colonial apartheid self.
He’s also campaigning for Biden while Biden actively ships 2,000 lb bombs to Israel to use in Gaza.
Bernie isn’t progressive. He’s betrayed the people and children of Gaza, supporting one of the chief defenders and supporters of their genocide.
During a presidential debate in the same year in Atlanta, Sanders embarked on another contradiction: “It is no longer good enough for us to be pro-Israel, I am pro-Israel, but we must treat the Palestinians with the dignity they deserve.” Being pro-Israel is being pro-colonialism, for the simple reason that Israel is a colonial enterprise that thrives upon the dispossession of the Palestinian people.
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20231107-bernie-sanders-and-the-zionist-narrative/
Lemmy: old white men need to stop running for office!
Also Lemmy: vote Bernie!!
Master Lock hath decreed it. And taco salads for all, proceed.
