Former President Trump attacked President Biden for his mental acuity in a radio interview Wednesday, and said he doubts his 2024 presumptive Democratic opponent “will even be running” in November.…
There is non-zero probability Trump spends the remaining portion of his campaign in Rikers. I’ve been following the Trump Trial pretty closely. Most informed punditry is putting it at 60-80% conviction to around 20% chance of hung jury. I’m not sure this does anything with regards to Trumps die-hards, but I could see Romney taking it as an opportunity.
That being said, the Biden campaign isn’t exactly trotting him out on the regular. They’ve been incredibly couched with how and when they put the Democratic nominee for President out there. Kamala has had way more press time than he has in the past 3 months. I mean thats what surrogates are for, but like, the silence is deafening. Remember how much Obamas first term aged him? Its not like Biden is immune to the impacts of stress, age, and a difficult job.
Trump is obviously not the person to look for for this kind of take, but I still don’t think either of these candidates are a sure thing. They are both old as fuck. Social security puts out an actuarial table on probability of dying in a given year for this age cohort.
Its about 8% for males. Imagine you have two 12 sided dice. If you roll both and neither comes up as a one, both of these guys make it to November. That’s just base line odds for octogenarians, who should be gardening and watching the view all day. Not octogenarians with high stress jobs or who are neck deep in criminal proceedings.
If you’ve followed the trial that closely, then you know that first-time offenders are not always given jail time for this. And in spite of the large number of individual counts, the prosecution is basing their case on only a few actions. The judge may order some charges served concurrently if they are tied to the same action. If he is found guilty on all counts, then if he goes to jail at all it will likely only be for a short term.
And while politics is not supposed to factor into sentencing at all, from a political point of view a short sentence is the worst possible outcome for people who don’t want to see the US turn into a fascist state. Because it means that Trump can play the Martyr card, and convince his fans that Biden is out to get him, in spite of the facts.
There is non-zero probability Trump spends the remaining portion of his campaign in Rikers. I’ve been following the Trump Trial pretty closely. Most informed punditry is putting it at 60-80% conviction to around 20% chance of hung jury. I’m not sure this does anything with regards to Trumps die-hards, but I could see Romney taking it as an opportunity.
That being said, the Biden campaign isn’t exactly trotting him out on the regular. They’ve been incredibly couched with how and when they put the Democratic nominee for President out there. Kamala has had way more press time than he has in the past 3 months. I mean thats what surrogates are for, but like, the silence is deafening. Remember how much Obamas first term aged him? Its not like Biden is immune to the impacts of stress, age, and a difficult job.
Trump is obviously not the person to look for for this kind of take, but I still don’t think either of these candidates are a sure thing. They are both old as fuck. Social security puts out an actuarial table on probability of dying in a given year for this age cohort.
Its about 8% for males. Imagine you have two 12 sided dice. If you roll both and neither comes up as a one, both of these guys make it to November. That’s just base line odds for octogenarians, who should be gardening and watching the view all day. Not octogenarians with high stress jobs or who are neck deep in criminal proceedings.
If you’ve followed the trial that closely, then you know that first-time offenders are not always given jail time for this. And in spite of the large number of individual counts, the prosecution is basing their case on only a few actions. The judge may order some charges served concurrently if they are tied to the same action. If he is found guilty on all counts, then if he goes to jail at all it will likely only be for a short term.
And while politics is not supposed to factor into sentencing at all, from a political point of view a short sentence is the worst possible outcome for people who don’t want to see the US turn into a fascist state. Because it means that Trump can play the Martyr card, and convince his fans that Biden is out to get him, in spite of the facts.
I have a bad feeling about this.