If you were the US, what are your options?
I feel like the “easy” thing would be to stop the global force projection (which they cannot afford anyway), lower the military budget and try to mobilize domestic industry (on a scale never before seen in a capitalist country). However, wouldn’t that completely degrade the value of the dollar? And so, it isn’t really a choice after all since the domestic economy probably would stop functioning if it crashes. So what even are the options besides continuing their attempts at projection power and trying to keep of the facade of “we are actually winning”.
I guess that in the short term, the one thing they do got going is the increased oil and gas exports. This can potentially keep things going for a while, until the Gulf or Russia can increase exports again.
I think the US will have no choice but to cut back on the global force projection. We’re already seeing articles like this from the US think tanks advocating for abandoning Asia. As you note, the collapse of American presence globally will likely have catastrophic effects on the US economy. So, my expectation is that we’ll see the US put a much harder squeeze on the remaining vassals like the EU, Australia, and Canada. Along side that, the US will likely retrench to the western hemisphere and focus on subjugating Latin America. The domestic exploitation will also increase to new heights.
I also expect that most countries will pursue renewables a lot more seriously because now there’s a realization that being dependent on energy imports is a national security concern. The US is doubling down on oil and gas production, but I think the demand will be dropping. The disruption from the Gulf is structural, and it won’t be resolved quickly. This creates both the time and the need to do renewables adoption at scale. There’s also a massive incentive for China to support these efforts as it will boost their economy.
that’s why there is a resurgence in right wing governments in latam. they’re all funded by the us behind the scenes. the continent will be ransacked one more time as much as they can and hopefully after that collapse we will see some light in the south.
exactly
I can’t see how capital will ever tolerate broad redirection away from finance toward industrial activity, given the return on the former will always dominate the latter. Capital clearly steers politics and power in the us (see e.g. the Powell memo, etc), so why would the owners intentionally permit diminished margins on capital deployments?
Thus, a return to industrial activity is a purely theoretical option for the US.
