Here’s a recent poll where Michele Obama came out more than two margins of errors of ahead of Trump.
Also, here’s a pile of salt.

It is most certainly not a small sample size. It’s what allows for a margin of error of ±3.5%* at the 95% confidence level. Here’s a graph of the margin of error vs sample size for 95% confidence interval.

With an 11 point margin, there’s a clear separation of the upper limit bar for Trump and lower limit bar for Obama. For a single poll, assuming the rest of it was well designed and executed, this is an important spread. And the reasons are obvious if you look at the report. She’s able to get 10% more Democratic support and 20% more independent voter support.

Ipsos is a high quality polling company. They don’t make rookie mistakes like sample size. There may be other reasons beyond my reasoning that make this a bad use of polling, but sample size is not it.

* The source incorrectly reported the margin of error for the full survey, both registered and unregistered participants.

This quote from the article really hits home:

Afterward, his aides would try to explain that he had been sick. He had seen two doctors before the debate. He had a fever, a virus. He wasn’t himself.

But while he may have been sick, he was himself. That was the problem.

I’m talking about the date and time of it being changed. You wrote:

dropped the fact checking that afternoon

But from what I can tell, the rules had been set for a couple of months.

I can’t find anything to corroberate #4. Do you have a reference?

30 minutes in: “And you don’t have to change anything if your dishwasher is working for you. But honestly, you’re probably not watching this if things are working for you.”

Me: I live my life the way I want damn it!

Over the last fifteen years of having read him, I find myself coming back to him to gain clarity of our current situation. At first, I couldn’t tell if he was a genius or mad man. I tilt towards genius now.

Edit … Isn’t that Hunter S. Thompson?

Baudrillard is always a joy to read.

I think the distractions are partially a user issue and partially a company issue. Companies make their programs noisy with notifications by default that I only change it once I’ve found it annoying. They also make their program so bloated that they are slow to load and execute. By the time the app loads, I’ve lost my flow and now the tool is a nuisance. My mind is already cluttered. I don’t need tech to slow it down.

I want those things and I want a phone that’s easy to use, doesn’t constantly advertise to me, and is more of a helpful tool than a distraction.

Melville spends a chapter comparing the different interpretations of whiteness in Moby Dick. This article talks about that, but I recommend reading the chapter if you get a chance.

Oof…

You are the voice of authority. Your words can wound.

Your initial presentation was vague. I agree that it could be made clear, but your initial posts just hinted at it.

There are some similarities and a some important differences. If you don’t acknowledge the differences. I think you haphazardly write responses with half remembered idiomatic expressions, sensationalism, and simplistic thinking.

With that said, you land in positions I might agree with. But you do a disservice to leftists. Do better.

I was contending “Nazis lost the election to Hindenburg … and came to power anyway in 1933 regardless.” Hitler didn’t come to power for some amorphous reasons, but specific decisions by people in power. I agree that material conditions are important, but it’s so vague here that it’s meaningless and can be shifted at any point in this discussion to support your position.

The Nazis agitated support on multiple fronts including electoral politics. Hindenburg surrounded himself with other military conservative and as conditions in the streets continued to worse economically and support swung to the nsdap, they urged him to give support to Hitler. However, the Nazis had won a plurality of the vote in every Reitsrat election starting in 1930.

Electoral politics alone isn’t the answer. Never was. Garnering support on the ground is difficult work.

Hidenberg handed Hitler the chancellorship. Hidenberg, the only check on the Nazi power, remained president until his death until 1934. After which, using the Enabling Act, Hitler was able to proclaim himself both chancellor and president.

Hitler becomes chancellor because Brünig, Hidenberg, Papen, and Schleicher all think they can control and temper Hitler all while staying in power and keeping the left wing out of power.

This podcast episode strong critiques the technical challenges, lifecycle costs, and market effort of hydrogen. I was hydro-curious before this, but it really seems unfeasible.

The chemical engineer being interviewed, Paul Martin, has been working with hydrogen for years.

Paul Martin is a Canadian chemical engineer with decades of experience making and using hydrogen and syngas. As a chemical process development specialist, Paul offers services to an international clientele via his private consultancy Spitfire Research. He is also co-founder of the Hydrogen Science Coalition, a nonprofit organization providing science-based information about hydrogen from a position free from commercial interest

I actually wonder if that’s a benefit for young people just starting out on their career journey. It’s mostly about feelings and a general sense and not specific opportunities to advance a career. In a lot of ways, a well established manager whose from another generation is not in time with those feelings and the difficulties with navigating them in a complex corporate environment.

Engineers in the US regularly stop at the bachelor’s level.

How do you make peace with one genocide? I don’t mean this as a ‘gotcha’ question, but it’s literally a thing I don’t know how to handle. Thanks.

“It is better that one hundred innocent college students fail a class than that one guilty college student write a paper with AI.” - Benjamin Academic