This is your regular reminder that national polls mean nothing. We do not have a national election.
Pay attention to the polls in these states, they will decide the election.
Pennsylvania - Biden +2/+3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/pennsylvania/Michigan - Biden +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/michigan/Wisconsin - Trump +4/+6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/wisconsin/Minnesota - Biden +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/minnesota/Georgia - Trump +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/georgia/Virginia - Biden +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/virginia/Arizona - Trump +6/+10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/New Mexico - Nothing remotely recent.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/new-mexico/Nevada - Trump +2/+3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/nevada/It’s hilarious in a sad way that our election process is rigged from the get-go. Votes should be equal in weight and they aren’t.
Yup. Thanks “first past the post” elections.
Once someone hits 50%+1, the rest of the votes for that person mean nothing.
So you look at 2016 California, Clinton won 61.73% to 31.62%. Every vote beyond 50%+1 could have been cast for literally anyone and the election results would not have changed.
2020 Alabama, Trump won 62.03% to 36.57%. Same deal.
There is a (fictional) society where that is the case. It’s called “Panem”.
I wish, I wish, I wish that stories that highlighted “Which candidate is more likely to end the country as we know it, in favor of a neo-fascist hellscape?” were as common as “Which candidate is leading among horribly propaganda-victimized voters?”
I can take some small solace in thinking that the subtext is that even the Republican voters are starting to figure out that Trump and DeSantis are monsters, rather than this being because of anything good about Nikki Haley. But it is cold comfort.
We polled 50 toothless hillbillies in the most rural part of West Virginia and this is what we found…
I’m in my early 40s and I can tell you that most of the people I know my age or younger will never vote Republican, and also will never answer polls like this.
I used to trust, for the most part, the science behind the polls and the sampling and statistics and all that. That was back when everyone had a land-line and the samples were somewhat close to representative of the population as a whole. These days I can’t imagine how I’d get a valid representative sample. I’m pretty ignorant on the subject, so maybe there is in fact a way to get a valid sample. At this point in my living and learning, I don’t think there is.
deleted by creator
I get polled pretty regularly, and while I don’t approve of Biden, I’m still voting for him. Because the alternative is too terrible to contemplate.
It’s funny how they always ask if you approve, but not “will you support them anyway?”
Please no
This is the best summary I could come up with:
In fact, as the GOP presidential nomination kicks off, Trump, Haley and DeSantis all have at least a slight national edge on President Biden right now, were they to emerge as his challenger.
(Haley and DeSantis have tougher roads to get that chance, of course, since they trail Trump substantially in the race for the nomination.)
Haley runs even with Mr. Biden on some key traits: she polls about even among those looking for a president who shows empathy and is open to compromise — qualities that large majorities of voters say is important to them.
Over a third of voters think Mr. Biden’s policies would favor racial minorities over White Americans, and nine in 10 of them are backing Trump.
And while Biden has made recent attempts to argue that a second Trump term would be a threat to democracy, that isn’t the main concern for much of the electorate.
When asked to compare the two, half of likely voters say having a strong economy is a bigger concern for them than having a functioning democracy — including a third of Democrats.
The original article contains 632 words, the summary contains 183 words. Saved 71%. I’m a bot and I’m open source!
