@RnaudBertrand has been having a lot of interesting takes lately. I’m not yet convinced this entire analysis is correct but it’s definitely interesting to think about. What do you think?:

"This may seem contradictory to many, but it actually makes a lot of sense.

A lot of the “Trump-adjacent” leaders like Milei who pursue radical change agendas at home may actually counter-intuitively prefer China than the U.S. as an economic partner precisely because it enables their transformative projects: China doesn’t interfere in internal affairs and they’re extremely predictable and stable. As Milei himself puts it: “They are fabulous. They don’t ask for anything in return. All they ask is that I don’t disturb them… They want to trade calmly.” ( https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2024/11/28/an-interview-with-javier-milei-argentinas-president )

Trump, on the other hand, while being ideologically similar to Milei, is not exactly the non-interfering and stable type… He is all about making the U.S. more more unilateral and unpredictable which, while this is probably what Milei himself would do if he were U.S. president, it’s less attractive if you’re on the receiving end. In particular, Trump might insist that countries like Argentina distance themselves from China which Milei wouldn’t want to do because, as he puts it (in this Buenos Aires Times article) both countries have “complementary economies.”

That’s one of the big Trump ironies: his “America first” ideology is pushing his “my country first” ideological brothers to make China their partner of choice. They share Trump’s anti-liberal vision of domestic transformation but conclude that China’s hands-off approach actually gives them more freedom to pursue it than Trump’s volatility would.

All in all, we might arrive at the paradoxical situation where the more aligned ideologically you are to Trump, the more you’re going to gravitate toward Beijing. And those who dislike Trump the most, your neoliberal types, will remain America’s most faithful vassals due to their nostalgic faith in the liberal order that Trump is dismantling. Go figure"