A Russian fiber optic cable under the Baltic Sea was damaged last month only 28 km (17 miles) from where a gas pipeline linking Finland and Estonia was ruptured a couple of hours later.
  • SomeDude@feddit.deEnglish
    101·
    8 months ago

    Sounds to me like russia paid someone to charter a Chinese ship to drag its anchor across the sea bed to rupture a pipeline, and damaged telecom cables in the process as well

    • tal@lemmy.todayOPEnglish
      41·
      8 months ago

      looks dubious

      I mean, no, this doesn’t prove that it wasn’t an intentional move from Russia, but it’s consistent with it not being one.

      I was skeptical that it was intentional when I heard about it, because that pipeline is small compared to other pipelines into the EU. If Russia starts intentionally knocking out EU pipelines, it’s going to put them in a considerable amount of hot water with the EU. I don’t think that Russia saying “well, that was just a small one” is going to mitigate things much. And it’s going to create that trouble for a relatively-small impact, if that pipeline is the one they hit.

      If Russia is going to start taking out EU pipelines in international waters, I’d expect it to be the big ones, like the pipelines out of Norway – in for a penny, in for a pound. Those have potential to significantly disrupt things in the EU.

      https://www.voanews.com/a/nordic-baltic-officials-tighten-security-at-energy-installations-after-baltic-sea-pipe-burst-/7306484.html

      Norway is Europe’s largest gas supplier and Western Europe’s largest oil producer, exporting more than 120 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas in 2022,

      Balticconnector, the Finland-Estonia pipeline, can only do 2.6 bcm/year.

      And while I get the timing makes one raise an eyebrow, ships have occasionally damaged cables with their anchors. I dunno about pipelines, fewer of those.

      googles

      There was a ship that dragged (though did not, at the time, rupture, as happened with the Balticconnector gas pipeline) an oil pipeline off California in 2021:

      https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/1-200-foot-ship-dragged-california-oil-pipeline-coast-guard-n1281718

      Now, there are answers to why one might target Balticconnector rather than a larger pipeline. Someone in an earlier conversation suggested that maybe it could be Russia specifically intending to disrupt things for Finland (just joined NATO) or Estonia. Again, possible, but I just have a hard time with the risk-versus-reward on it.

      And it doesn’t really seem to me to mesh with Russia’s strategy on Ukraine. Russia is hoping that western countries will get tired of supporting Ukraine or that Ukraine will get tired of fighting. Starting to take out pipelines would be poking the EU in the eye, which I’d call counterproductive to that.