• Bipta@kbin.social
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    8 months ago

    It’s been pretty obvious Trump is going to win again for at least six months now, but just like in 2016 the DNC marches us towards our mass graves.

    • El Barto@lemmy.world
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      8 months ago

      Trump lost the last elections while being a sitting president. Why do people keep forgetting that?

      • candybrie@lemmy.world
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        8 months ago

        What makes you think that? Trump voters love him. Between the economy and Israel’s actions, Biden voters are pretty damn disaffected at this point. It was close last time (he won the tipping point state by a mere 0.6%), so it doesn’t take too many people staying home to result in Trump winning.

        • NineMileTower@lemmy.world
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          8 months ago

          If you think that Americans are affected enough by Gaza to vote for Trump you are flat out insane. He lost once already and there’s no way he’s gained voters. He’s accrued a multitude of criminal charges. You say " Trump voters love him. " And that’s true, but there aren’t many left. Media will have you believe it will be close, so that they can keep your eyes on their content.

          • candybrie@lemmy.world
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            8 months ago

            No one is going to vote for Trump over Gaza. They’re just not gonna vote. And you must live in some kind of bubble if you think Trump supporters have changed their minds over the last 4 years. Some of them have since 2016. But if they supported him in 2020, they’re supporting him now. Trump doesn’t need anyone new to vote for him, just for a small percentage of people who showed up for the record turn out election in 2020 to not this time around.

              • candybrie@lemmy.world
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                7 months ago

                Do you happen to personally know a bunch of 2020 Trump voters who are voting Biden this time around? I have no idea where you’re getting this confidence from.

                • NineMileTower@lemmy.world
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                  7 months ago

                  I know a few, but to base my argument on anecdotes is not helpful. However, check this article out: Donald Trump Suffers Huge Vote Against Him in Maryland, Nebraska

                  However, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who dropped out of the race two months ago, is still receiving a notable number of votes against the former president, winning 20 percent of the vote in Maryland, or more than 47,500 votes, and 17.8 percent in Nebraska, which amounts to nearly 37,000 ballots.

                  A lot of people are arguing that it will be a close race, but if 17-20% of your party is voting for a candidate that has already dropped out of the race, that can’t be good for a close race. These people SHOWED UP to vote for someone else who was no longer in the race. I refuse to believe that these voters went out of their way to vote for Haley in the primaries, just to say “Ah, fuck it, I’ll just vote for Trump” in the general election. Third party votes are going to hurt Trump.

                  There have been multiple polls which suggest that Haley supporters will not go on to vote for Trump in the 2024 election, with Biden’s campaign team also said to be hoping to win over these disillusioned Republicans.

                  • candybrie@lemmy.world
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                    7 months ago

                    Maryland is blue and doesn’t matter. Similarly, Nebraska went for the republican candidate by more than a 20 point margin in 2020.

                    If you want to use that argument, how many people voted for “noncommitted” in the Michigan democratic primary? People don’t even have another option but are going out to vote “not Biden” in an actual swing state.

          • candybrie@lemmy.world
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            8 months ago

            They don’t have to be the majority. They just have to show up to vote in some swing states where Biden voters don’t bother. President isn’t based on who has the majority. It’s based on a) turn out and b) electoral college. It doesn’t matter if everyone and their mom turn out to vote democratic in California. It matters if about 20,000 people in Wisconsin who voted Biden last year decide it isn’t worth the trouble this year.

            • El Barto@lemmy.world
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              7 months ago

              Correct. And all that already happened in 2020 when Trump LOST while being a sitting president.

              More people will vote against Trump, including this recently naturalized 'Merican.

              • candybrie@lemmy.world
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                7 months ago

                With how unpopular Trump and Biden are, it’s probably easier to lose as the sitting president. I don’t know anyone happy with the state of the country, and that’s generally blamed on the president.

                • El Barto@lemmy.world
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                  7 months ago

                  And added to that, the massive disinformation campaigns from foreign powers.

                  What a shitshow, man.

      • sh00g@lemmy.zip
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        7 months ago

        It is almost a certainty that Trump will lose the popular vote. It is highly likely the election will be extremely close still because of the electoral college. In a country of hundreds of millions, it only takes hundreds of thousands of voters in swing states to change the outcome, regardless of the majority.