I (unfortunately) live in this district, so heres my local insight/opinions. The incumbent for the district, Ken Buck, stepped down in March, so it’s all “new” challengers, 3 of which have been involved in state/local politics. The district has been Red since 2008. As another poster shared, 538 polling shows her losing to 2 of the three Dems running in the primary. Most of east rural Colorado is more '90s conservatives than tea party/MAGA conservatives, so they are likely to stay home and not vote for Boebert.
Lines were redrawn after 2022 election which caused Boeberts current district to become more blue, and I think Adam Frisch has a good chance of winning, which means boebert has a shot at flipping two districts from red to blue. 538 doesn’t have any polling data for district 3 yet so this may just be a Lefty’s dream.
As a district 4 resident I’ll add some more context (and reason why we need ranked choice voting nationally). The Republican primary was packed, with 6 total candidates. Boebert only got 43% of the vote, and the next closest was Sonnenberg at 13%. The non-MAGA conservatives spread their votes across all the other candidates. With ranked choice, it would be a much closer margin. I’m not saying she would have lost, but over 50% of voting repubs wanted someone else over Boebert.
The “good” news is Boebert is pooling poorly vs Dems in the district, which means we have a chance to flip district 4 blue in November.
This page has the election results https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-primary-elections/colorado-us-house-district-4-results
And heres the 538 page for CO district 4. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/house/2024/colorado/4/