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Cake day: December 11th, 2023

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  • It means puzzled and/or confused.

    Many authors seem to think it means amused mixed with some confusion or puzzlement or something else like that.

    Some dictionaries have started to include definitions along those lines, which is correct to do if that is becoming a common usage. But that makes the word bullshit because it no longer conveys a clear meaning. Unlike some words that gain new meanings through misuse, it’s usually not clear which meaning is intended from context. Usually I can easily imagine a character’s response to something to be either of these definitions so I often can’t understand the author’s intention. I often find myself taken out of the story while I try to understand which meaning I should use. Because of this I think the word has become useless and shouldn’t be used.












  • The footprints of chargers and gas stations aren’t the same though. A lot of places I go have a row of 8-10 spots with chargers. No added footprint really, just installed at the front of the spot. Compare that to an 8-10 pump gas station, even without a convenience store. If you removed a gas station and replaced it with rows of spaces with chargers I think you’d get more cars through over a given period of time.




  • Don’t put words in my mouth. I never said the data doesn’t match reality. I’m saying the data is reality, or are least the best measure of it we have.

    You’re the one insisting that your experiences are the only measure of reality, and since the data doesn’t agree, it must be bullshit, instead of the much more likely explanation that your experiences aren’t typical.

    I’m not sure what you’re referring to with the “6 months” thing, but if you’re talking about the inflation rate spiking, the data wasn’t wrong, the interpretation was. The data showed inflation up, every month, but the Fed thought it was “transitory”. Eventually they realized “oh shit” it’s not transitory and took action to bring it down while trying not to cause a recession at the same time. I’m no fan of the Fed in general, but credit where it’s due, it looks like they did a damn good job.

    I’m well aware of all the various measures of unemployment, and they’re very good. Both short and long term unemployment are below what used to be considered maximum employment, and have been for a while. Underemployment is historically low. And after controlling for boomers aging out, workforce participation is trending upward. More people are working, more people are working full time, in jobs they’re trained for (as opposed to having to take jobs they’re overqualified for), and their wages are growing faster than inflation.

    No, I don’t think there is a vast conspiracy of thousands of federal workers, normal career employees, not political appointees, publishing fake numbers. The raw data is public and so is the origin. No one disagrees on what the numbers are, just what spin to put on it. Often, for political reasons, people will try to put a bad spin on good numbers, or a good spin on shitty numbers, but the numbers themselves are not in question.

    I think you’ve been taken in by someone who wants to put a bad spin on good numbers. Numbers so good, if you had told me you thought we’d be here a year ago I would have laughed in your face.

    Maybe, just maybe, the people doing well aren’t lying to you, there isn’t a conspiracy of government workers, and things are as all available data suggests.

    Maybe your experiences just aren’t typical.




  • But things have changed, that’s the point. While individual experiences vary, all the economic data this year has been pretty stellar.

    Reducing inflation this fast without tanking the economy, and not just not tanking it, actually having pretty decent economic numbers is a major achievement.

    When the Fed stated raising rates to curtail inflation almost everyone thought there was no way to do it without a recession, maybe a major one, and increasing unemployment 2-3X. The “soft landing” seemed like a naive hope. We’re not all the way there yet but it looks like they actually did it. Inflation is almost down to targets and at the same time, unemployment is still low, GDP growth is good, real wage growth beats inflation, etc.

    It’s not all blowjobs and caviar for everyone but we were heading for a major disaster and it’s been avoided.