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I don’t get it, this is just a picture of Obama.

Piece wise Weirstrauss function orbits?

It will make your differential equation based orbit solvers more fun!

Yes, probability gets much messier with correlated events, and most models assume independence. You can vary intensity/hazard in counting processes, but really there’s not much you can do at a certain point.

It’s even better because they signed contracts that guarantee that capacity to OpenAI, guarantee payments to their creditors, and Oracle is on the hook for it all with no outs.

Which is why I think it’s all a play, oracle famously is very lawyer heavy, they wouldn’t sign such stupid deals for no reason.

I offer you an IOU. I’m on a good streak, and the IOU is that I’ll pay you back over time with interest.

You accept. You then find 9 other people offering IOUs of varying reliability.

You package up all the IOUs into an asset group. In theory we all pay you back regularly, but some of us will not. With 10 IOUs it’s unlikely we’ll all default, so the asset is safer and your risk models can assess this.

You still have the same amount of debt and risk on your hands.

You turn sell the rights to the payouts from the group, in exchange for cash now, because paying $X for payback of Y% interest over Z years with Q risk is an easy to reason about deal.

But your potential buyers squabble over Q, some don’t want to lose anything, some want to be risky.

So you split that risk level out into groups and say “if the overall goes down, this group pays first, then this group, then this group”, and you’ve created a securitized asset.

You’ve now sold off these assets to various groups, with defined risk levels, and you’ve made back money to offset what you paid out to the initial 10 IOUs.

Now imagine you took IOUs from crack addicts who are talking a lot about the power transformer behind the mall. They say they need money for tools and this will be the big one. You’re intrigued.

Odds are good this will pay off you think, those crackheads were excited and confident.

Later that day you hear sirens. Like, a lot of sirens. It’s coming from the mall area. Huh.

You still haven’t sold off all the slices of your asset, you were maybe hoping for more upside, and selling can take a while. But those sirens… they’re concerning.

Maybe it’d be a good idea to swap out your asset for another one, or offer those slices at a discount for some higher than expected risk. So you go out and start making phone calls hoping someone else isn’t worried about it. The only people who are less worried are a biker gang you normally wouldn’t do business with, but you figure for a discount they’re happy to deal with the crackheads.

(This was more about securities than recapitalizing, but kinda the idea)

Probably related to the now three Oracle data center that can’t get electricity.

Wisconsin passed a law that fast tracking large projects requires a high credit rating or collateral, to pay secure costs for building the power plants needed for the data center. In July Oracle’s debt rating was downgraded to near junk levels.

That means Oracle can no longer get Wisconsin to supply power to the data center so it’s a $15 billion dollar paper weight. Thats putting even further downward pressure on their credit rating and ability to secure loans to meet their $500B in obligations.

Now Oracle’s New Mexico data center is stuck due to contract issues with water and gas turbines, so they can’t move foreward. Oracle has a 9% interest rate on the loans to build that, then they raise 2% after construction, because their credit rating is dogshit. So now Oracle is claiming force majeur to get out of their increased debt obligations, which you can imagine, is killing interest in lending to them.

In Texas they just blocked new grid hookups over political backlash to skyrocketing electricity prices. That killed another Oracle expansion they just canceled, and another one is trucking in gas for gas turbines as an alternative to the electrical grid, which you might imagine is expensive.

Which brings us to now. The banks are looking at local opposition blocking these projects (local action is working), states are blocking them to avoid getting voted out, hardware costs are shooting up, and the assets backing these loans are too small for so much investment.

So the level of risk no longer works.

—

My personal theory is that Oracle is a sacrificial lamb. It’s a dead end tech company that lives on licensing fees, and they’ve fucked themselves on these expansions. They’re failing at being a hyper-scaler as margins decrease.

I bet we see someone take Oracle private when their stock collapses, freeing the board of fiduciary duty to the stakeholders with a payout. This move is critical because it blocks other hyperscalers from putting in an offer to acquire their assets to shore up debt.

OpenAI will acquire the now private Oracle through a special funding round and buy up their hardware for pennies on the dollar. This will absolve them of the debt obligations Oracle has to OpenAI that have killed their credit ($500b), and stabilizes the Oracle balance sheet.

OpenAI will write this down and offer Oracle’s creditors equity stakes in lieu of cash, and will have acquired all their next gen hardware far cheaper than their competitors.

This might even fuck over Nvidia, the incestuous funders of the AI circlejerk. If Oracle gets to write off their GPU debts then Nvidia loses a fuck ton of sales, tanking their stock price — they take that OpenAI equity offer and look like they’re playing the game. OpenAI wants to build their own chips anyways, just look at jalapeño.

Is it though?

I try it but it doesn’t feel good. It feels like a clone of Office 2004.

—

I just installed it, open an xlsx file, it opens to the document explorer panel not my document.

Okay, weird, where’s my file? Open it again.

It’s your first time here, customize the app! Here are 5 different UI paradigms to choose from. Okay, I guess compact?

Don’t forget the theme! Sure, okay, use automatic theme and default 2004 style icons.

LibreOffice needs to restart to apply settings. I watched it dynamically update in the background, but okay.

Restarts Tip of the day: you can change your appearance settings! Run this action now? No. Why? Close.

Okay, I spent all that time customizing my tab bar, and yet, Calc doesn’t use a tab bar, so there’s no change at all after all that? No idea if that’s a macOS thing or not because it puts the toolbar values in the menu bar.

Okay, well let’s make a pivot table. Seems decent, it’s a clean Excel clone here, decent functionality. Needs a count distinct and some custom aggregations.

What’s this “Data” field though? Drag it to first slot: LibreOffice hard crashes. At least it saved my document.

Reopen file, let’s zoom out. Click and drag zoom slider, it creates a glitched rectangle around the active cell that tears vs rest of screen that doesn’t always update. It looks like the full page only zooms on certain values while deagging, but on release that sticks.

Let’s make a chart. Select 3 items plus total in my pivot. Click chart button. 3 bars in the chart, where my total bar? Data field is blocked out on pivot take charts. Change chart type, wait 3 seconds for a re render. Try to move the chart but have to click off first.

Okay, let’s delete the chart now. Press delete button: “This function cannot be completed on the selected objects”. Huh? Oh I have to click off, then select the chart again, then delete it.

—

That was my 10 minute experiment. It feels just as bad in a web browser. The Skia renderer is so much better than the old system, but like, I found all this crap in 10 minutes.

I really want this to be good, but it needs a critical editor to go through it with a fine toothed comb. Honestly, they should crib Google Sheets, since it’s got a better interface than Excel now.

Okay but surely people get that BSD and Linux aren’t remotely the same thing, even though both are Unix-like and POSIX compatible, right?

I will be looking for where to watch this

Is this re:boot?

This story, that Cloudflare reported lower identified automated bot and API traffic from the ASN of the destroyed data centres, has been so massively warped it’s insane.

It demonstrates that average people and apparently tech reporters like toms hardware don’t know how the internet works at all.

When residential proxies affect at least a third of US households, you don’t need to route through a data centre that will be flagged as bot traffic. You set up a wire guard config and route to a residential proxy installed on millions of smart TVs, android boxes, smart appliances, desktop computers, and phones.

Seriously, I recently mapped multiple residential proxy networks with over 30 million unique US ips that were just scraping. You can use math to reliably fingerprint these networks, they’re big, with hundreds of millions of IPs involved, and you can rotate them via an API call to clean ones.

Zero of this traffic would be taken down by these strikes. We didn’t even see any perceptible change in internet traffic overall with this.

100%

Anything we as humans choose to be a part of, we can choose to improve. Unions included. Nothing needs to stay the same if it isn’t working.

It would be nice.

Most of my complaints about unions are:

• Seniority is a terrible system to build a foundation from. It just is. I don’t give a fuck who got there first, seniority systems grow complacency, punish competence, and lower labour mobility. I was in a union as a teenager, the company offered lump sum payments for the older union members to literally sell out the younger ones with delayed wage increases, and they all voted for it since it was harming someone else.
• There are many unions that are just greedy pigs. You pay dues in, the union gets fat, but they spend all their time defending the wrong people.
• Unions can add a lot of extra process to things that don’t require it

However, that does not mean we shouldn’t have unions. We should maybe try to improve how we do them, so they work better for everyone.

I just want a union that looks out for unfair labour practices, forced unpaid overtime, keeps the company competitive on salary and benefits, and is willing to fight for workers who are unduly fired or sidelined.

Same thing just happened with Anthropics numbers. Billions short of their stated numbers.

🤞

The whole threatening careers thing happened with navier stokes too.

These people are completely rotten to the core.

I recently spent several weeks in Iceland, I would live there.

I love the cold, I love the rain, I love their landscapes, and the food (I am a big fan of the plokkfiskur, absolutely worth trying). The people were incredibly nice, things were clean, the roads were generally well designed with good rules.

Aside from a sheep that I swear was saying rude things about my mother, it was wonderful.

If I had the choice, I would be quite happy living anywhere not in the south, maybe something north of Borgarnes.

CRAM is an excellent name

It doesn’t really feel like work, I just sort by weight+size in descending order