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6 hours agoFor how long this took — for the mere fact they took this case — and given their previous rulings, I’m more stunned the experts are stunned.
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Cake day: July 1st, 2023
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I’ll be honest, Linkerbaan — and you may know this from our previous discussions — I can even see the high-stakes situation with Israel and not like it but understand why in the grand scheme of politics (AIPAC, Jewish American voters, and the risk of withholding arms and then a false-flag terrorist attack occurs on Israeli soil, only to cause an immediate end of Biden’s campaign and an installation of someone FAR more pro-genocide)… But nevertheless, your point raises something I think we can both agree on: Ditching Biden also helps, as Mehdi Hasan has pointed out, ditch the baggage of Israeli genocide complicity.
Before going forward, let me be clear: I want to be convinced that we’re not fucked. I really do. The past three days I’ve gone into detail about how I think we’re fucked and looking for anyone to make a sound, data-driven argument that shows we are not. I’ve yet to be convinced by one, and bear in mind I voted for Biden once and would vote for a corpse if it meant preventing the convicted felon getting keys to the WH again.
There is ample evidence that a not insignificant amount of swing voters either saw past the old man voice to what he was actually saying and standing for, as well as recognized how badly Trump did, even though literally everyone only focuses on Biden, just like always.
Please show me these! Because these are all the surveys I’ve so far seen:
Post-Debate: “72 Percent Say Biden Unfit Mentally, Cognitively.”
Post-Debate: “Voters think Harris is more fit than Biden to run the country”
Post-Debate: “Swing state voters react to presidential debate, Biden’s weak performance”
Post-Debate Focus Group: “Undecided voter focus group leans toward Trump after debate”
Let’s face reality:
- Biden is 10.5 points nationally below where he was at this time in 2020 in polling versus Trump.
- Biden is currently losing in nearly every single battleground state.
- Biden is losing a significant number of Black and Latino voters compared to his 2020 run.
- Biden’s aggregate approval ratings for Presidency are 37.9% with 56.3% disapproval.
To me I view it as a known loss versus a known risky chance. At this point, personally and given all the data I’ve thus far presented, I am that convinced that we will lose. Polling shows people deeply unsatisfied with the current candidate. I think critical swing-state voters would just be happy to vote for a fresh face that is younger. Like Mehdi Hasan said, “Americans like new shit.”
So I don’t know how how you can say with a straight face that Biden is more successful while simultaneously dodging the obvious fact that there is a significant decline in physical and cognitive performance. So let’s recap:
We can downplay all we want, but this wasn’t “one bad debate,” for it wasn’t even about the debat eitself but the revelation of Biden’s senility piercing through echo-chambers. For the exact same reason Biden ASKED for this debate to reach important voters and show he’s mentally fit (akin to the SOTU) and show Trump is not, it backfired 100% and there will not be another chance to reach 50 million voters at prime-tme. Trump has no obligation to take another debate; ending on that note is all that is needed.
- Biden took this debate because he is currently losing and needed to break the stagnant, steadily-declining polls.
- Biden’s performance is worse than his 2020 run and in fact, worse than Hillary’s losing run in 2016 by every single metric I can find.
- There is a MASSIVE amount of risk that Biden’s condition deteriorates more rapidly between now and November, and following the convention there is no more backing out.
If I was a Republican strategist, I’d be doing everything in my power to keep Biden in the race because I know he’d be the weakest opponent compared to a fresh, younger face. Nate Silver, Ezra Klein, even former Obama/Biden staffers from PSA clearly agree.
Now if you agree with this and you say, “okay I see your points, but how can anyone else do better?” then we’ll move on to that.
With all due respect if we’re speaking in terms of certainty, I am 100% certain that Biden will give Trump the election—and I guarantee I have more evidence to support that statement than anyone does to the opposite conclusion. Staying this course is a disaster in slow-motion. The Titanic already hit the iceberg and now we’re just sinking for 4 months straight. We either jump ship now, or we are going to lose, or we start gearing up for 2028 now.
For once, I just want Democrats to take a fucking bold brazen move. Seriously. This is why Democrats never control the narrative because they’re always too gun-shy to do the right thing and stand by their own beliefs.
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Ditch the 81-year-old clearly suffering cognitive decline; run what would be a viral media frenzy that is an open convention and an American Idol contest for the American people.
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Or fuck it: AOC will be old enough to be President this year. Even if she can’t get the nomination, she should start campaigning literally today until 2028, just like Trump does.
Edit: Sorry, going to move this to the top of the thread because it’s too important:
Before going forward, let me be clear: I want to be convinced that we’re not fucked. I really do. The past three days I’ve gone into detail about how I think we’re fucked and looking for anyone to make a sound, data-driven argument that shows we are not. I’ve yet to be convinced by one, and bear in mind I voted for Biden once and would vote for a corpse if it meant preventing the convicted felon getting keys to the WH again.
There is ample evidence that a not insignificant amount of swing voters either saw past the old man voice to what he was actually saying and standing for, as well as recognized how badly Trump did, even though literally everyone only focuses on Biden, just like always.
Please show me these! Because these are all the surveys I’ve so far seen:
Post-Debate: “72 Percent Say Biden Unfit Mentally, Cognitively.”
Post-Debate: “Voters think Harris is more fit than Biden to run the country”
Post-Debate: “Swing state voters react to presidential debate, Biden’s weak performance”
Post-Debate Focus Group: “Undecided voter focus group leans toward Trump after debate”
Let’s face reality:
- Biden is 10.5 points nationally below where he was at this time in 2020 in polling versus Trump.
- Biden is currently losing in nearly every single battleground state.
- Biden is losing a significant number of Black and Latino voters compared to his 2020 run.
- Biden’s aggregate approval ratings for Presidency are 37.9% with 56.3% disapproval.
To me I view it as a known loss versus a known risky chance. At this point, personally and given all the data I’ve thus far presented, I am that convinced that we will lose. Polling shows people deeply unsatisfied with the current candidate. I think critical swing-state voters would just be happy to vote for a fresh face that is younger. Like Mehdi Hasan said, “Americans like new shit.”
So I don’t know how how you can say with a straight face that Biden is more successful while simultaneously dodging the obvious fact that there is a significant decline in physical and cognitive performance. So let’s recap:
We can downplay all we want, but this wasn’t “one bad debate,” for it wasn’t even about the debat eitself but the revelation of Biden’s senility piercing through echo-chambers. For the exact same reason Biden ASKED for this debate to reach important voters and show he’s mentally fit (akin to the SOTU) and show Trump is not, it backfired 100% and there will not be another chance to reach 50 million voters at prime-tme. Trump has no obligation to take another debate; ending on that note is all that is needed.
- Biden took this debate because he is currently losing and needed to break the stagnant, steadily-declining polls.
- Biden’s performance is worse than his 2020 run and in fact, worse than Hillary’s losing run in 2016 by every single metric I can find.
- There is a MASSIVE amount of risk that Biden’s condition deteriorates more rapidly between now and November, and following the convention there is no more backing out.
If I was a Republican strategist, I’d be doing everything in my power to keep Biden in the race because I know he’d be the weakest opponent compared to a fresh, younger face. Nate Silver, Ezra Klein, even former Obama/Biden staffers from PSA clearly agree.
Now if you agree with this and you say, “okay I see your points, but how can anyone else do better?” then we’ll move on to that.
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Anyone: (1) young, and (2) not old.
But just curious: are you sincerely asking this as if you haven’t heard the half dozen names floated, some of whom did better in battleground states than Biden?
Yeah I’m chuckling at the anonymous vote manipulation.
You know these cowards have no substantive argument.
First off, Garland was a Supreme Court Justice nominee By Obama and who the Republicans would block, right? I’m not remotely buying this olive-branch attempt to downplay this. I’m pretty sure he wouldn’t survive scrutiny from the left if he was a partisan hack for both being a SCOTUS nominee, as well as an AG under Biden. If Garland was that much of a conservative partisan hack, McConnell wouldn’t have blocked the appointment. So far I think he’s doing a fucking fantastic job and the only people I see complaining are people who are clearly not legal experts and think everything is so cut-and-dry and easy with a “if I was in there, it would’ve been done overnight!” mentality.
Second, I know exactly which WaPo article you’re discussing and it did not take 2.5 years for him to begin investigating. Nor does that article cover the OTHER investigations apart from January 6th, such as the classified documents case.
Forget the obvious fucking fact that goes completely unmentioned: Garland was busy building the case from the ground-up while handling — gee I don’t know — the largest criminal investigation in the history of the FBI.. So naturally, it would make sense if you wanted to make sure you eliminated ANY hole for accusation of bias to first build your case from the ground-up, charge the actual insurrectionists first, then let smaller fish turn on bigger fish which can then be used as evidence for the mega case that is taking down a former President.
Edit: the silence of the anonymous down-votes without substantive rebuttal couldn’t be more deafening.
The people who need to read this are either the psychopaths who implemented the strategy to get these conservative hacks on the court, or the grossly gullible base too illiterate to find let alone comprehend this dissent.
Golly, if only Barr wasn’t overseeing that aforementioned Department during that period of time.
I agree. We are going to lose in November if we remain on this shuffling horse.
I will vote for Biden, but we will lose because we’re not the people who needed to be convinced by that debate performance.
Breaking: Merrick Garland magically throws together a team and analyzes thousands of documents and gets search warrants for former presidents and analyzes all information, gets grand juries and indicts magically really quickly!
(… Later)
Breaking: Merrick Garland’s indictments thrown out on technicality because of rushing things; widespread animosity that this is a political witch-hunt thrown together.
We fucked up, but not because of this.
lol my guy, you are reaching for some serious straws. If you’re not going off of this data, what ARE you going off, exactly…? Vibes? This is more denial than I can handle.
He was not telling Biden to drop out the day before the debate. He was telling Biden to drop out the day after,
Well no fucking shit! That’s called adapting to new information. Any good scientist or analyst does it. When an unprecedented event like THAT debate performance occurs, then yes, that means you must go back and readjust the model. Models only work if they actually factor in the latest information — you get this, right? Have you SEEN the post-debate polling coming out? It’s TERRIBLE:
Post-Debate: “72 Percent Say Biden Unfit Mentally, Cognitively.”
Post-Debate: “Undecided voter focus group leans toward Trump after debate”
Trump tanked two debates against Hillary and still squeaked through on election day. Nobody is going to be thinking about this debate by the time the Olympics are over.
You live in this magical fairy-tale world where Trump is held to the same standard as Biden when he clearly is not. If voters were as informed as you and me then we wouldn’t have either of these fucking candidates. Neither of those poor debates come remotely close to what we saw yesterday from the person espousing to be the fighter to take on Donald Trump. It doesn’t change the reality reflected in every single piece of data we have in battleground states. Now you can choose to bury your head in the sand and go off vibes if you want, but good luck with that.
Nate’s algorithm is just a poll of polls. And his reasoning is incredibly short term and superficial.
That isn’t true. Far more involved than that. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeights-2020-presidential-forecast-works-and-whats-different-because-of-covid-19/
Nate went further post-debate performance, knowing where Biden stands in a variety of polling and that this was the worst debate perhaps in the history of debates they was a make-or-break moment for the campaign desperate to reach a widespread audience. Biden capturing the attention of 50 million people will not happen again between now and November. For many Americans this debate, which Republicans will never let anyone forget, will be the last thing they remember.
More importantly there will be no major positive event that overrides it. That event, if it existed, already passed with Trump’s conviction.
Nobody can provide me a single data-point where Biden isn’t performing significantly worse than his 2020 race where he won by merely 40,000 votes across 3 battleground states. Time to face hard truths.
And yet, he hasn’t predicted yet because there are many other “keys”. Case-in-point: see how incumbency worked for Trump.
Also should be noted other reputable science-based algorithm designers like Nate Silver advises Biden to step down.
Finally, the unprecedented nature of an open convention also means this guy has nothing to go on for extrapolation.
Meaningless considering he still hasn’t predicted whether or not Biden will win this election. He says he needs another month lol.
Edit: As a bonus he can’t even apply his own rubric to a new potential candidate. So the real questions are: How could he possibly know they’d be worse, and why the fuck is he even saying anything?
I’m laughing that I submit 2 different focus groups of undecided voters saying the opposite and it’s down-voted into oblivion.
But this copium is upvoted…
I would, too, but there are a lot of insane people in America these days my friend.
It’s cute. But this is, of course, a given. And we don’t expect Hitler to do the right thing. We expect Biden to.
Of course the Kremlin, and Israel as well as other state actors are; but the obvious question then becomes — what is the Biden campaign actually doing to offset that effect? They are losing the battle and time is running out.