Kaplya [none/use name]

3 out the 4 pipelines were blown up. And you’re assuming the US won’t just bomb the last one away when needed.

The bombing itself was a warning and a threat. Germany understands this. Whoever gets into the government understands this reality.

Millions more will riot if the US stops supplying energy to Germany. We’re talking about societal collapse here. Nothing functions when you don’t have fuel and energy.

I disagree that Germany doesn’t have any alternative to EU. They could join BRICS and start getting cheap energy from Russia again.

How is this ever going to happen?

Germany has lost its only chance at energy sovereignty after the Nord Stream bombing, its military is barely functional and reliant completely on the US, and the austerity in 2024 budget is going to extinguish any hope of an economic recovery in Germany, at least for the decade if not longer.

Germany’s position is far more precarious than what many people think. Imagine the US cuts off energy supply to Germany, we’re talking about a severe energy crisis with unmitigated economic consequences that will wreck Germany for generations. The US now solely decides what Germany can do.

What’s going to happen in Germany is that deindustrialization and poor economic prospects will be accompanied by the rise of fascism, all of which will destabilize the European economic region and leading to mass emigration/brain drain as people, especially young professionals and highly skilled workers, are looking for way out. Most of them will end up in the US as cheap labor competing with domestic workers to drive wages to the bottom. Exactly what the US capitalists wanted.

This is just shock therapy in action. It was what the EU (and the US) did to the post-Soviet states after the collapse, and the US is doing the same to the EU today.

This is why I believe that even Russians (and Putin) genuinely did not expect the EU to go all in with Ukraine. They really thought that they could force some sort of a peace negotiation from the Western imperialist powers.

They must be scratching their heads like “really? is this really the hill you want to die on? because you’re going to lose so much more than we can afford to.”

This is not acting against its own geopolitical interests, this is just European chauvinism, plain and simple.

Hitler deciding to invade the Soviet Union was not acting against Nazi Germany’s own interests, they genuinely believed that they could win, even when Hitler’s General Staff calculated that they only had 4 months to achieve that goal before critical logistics issues set in. They genuinely believed that they could crush the entire Red Army in just 4 months.

What Germany is doing today is the same. They had been itching to unleash the greatest sanctions the world has ever seen on Russia, and they saw the chance to do it when Russia invaded Ukraine. They genuinely believed that the combined power of the most powerful economic blocs today, the US plus the EU, would instantly crush Russia’s tiny economy, which is smaller than Italy’s.

They have completely bought into their own propaganda. Ukraine is beating Russia handily. Just wait a few more months and Russia will collapse. All mainstream journals were reporting on the same propagandized materials, and the European industrialists and capitalists fully indulged in it.

And when they eventually realized it was a mistake, they tried to re-negotiate. That’s when Nord Stream pipelines were bombed. The Americans would not let them have it.

Germany today, and the EU by extension, is completely trapped. They don’t have energy sovereignty, their military and defense are completely dependent on the US, the euro is taking a pounding, de-industrialization is accelerating, and EU budget is cutting spending all across the board in 2024. It has no way out. This is shock therapy in action.

And that’s exactly what the US wants: as job prospects diminish, loads of European skilled workers will be looking for way out, and they will come to the US as cheap labor to compete with the domestic workers, dragging wages further down as the European economy crumbles. This is the end goal that the US has set for the EU (ironically, the EU became prosperous in the first place by doing the same to the post-Soviet states in the 1990s after the USSR collapsed), and there is nothing they can do to stop this from happening.