The polls have shown Donald Trump with an edge for eight straight months, but there’s a sign his advantage might not be quite as stable as it looks: His lead is built on gains among voters who aren’t paying close attention to politics, who don’t follow traditional news and who don’t regularly vote.
Disengaged voters on the periphery of the electorate are driving the polling results — and the story line — about the election.
People who don’t regularly vote are the people that won him the election in 2016. I know these state media propaganda rags like to pretend that engagement with them is the deciding factor, but fact is, a lot of Trump supporters had their mind made up 4 years ago and don’t need to follow the noise to know what they’re going to do.
This graph is comparing against action 4 years ago. Anyone who had their mind made up then is a 2020 voter.